The 2011 season has been a wild ride for the Detroit Tigers. They started out slow, then got hot and watched Miggy win the batting title and Verlander put up a MVP type of season. No one could have seen this season coming and we are all juiced for the post season. I have some bad news though.
My mother is going to kill me for saying this but the Detroit Tigers are not beating the New York Yankees.
What!!!! How dare you say that. We have the best pitcher and best hitter in the AL!”
The Tigers do have the best regular season pitcher, but they don’t have the best post season pitcher. That goes to CC Sabathia. As a Yankee, he is 5-1 in the post season. Verlander is 1-2. Now to be fair, that was 5 years ago, but my point is CC knows post season, Verlander doesn’t.
“This season Verlander is on a whole different level!”
True, but not against the Yankees. The Tigers had lost 9 games in which Verlander started, twice it was against the Yankees. On opening day, he let up three runs in six innings, and on May 2nd, let up three runs in the first two innings. Those type of stats will get you beat by the Yankees. Period.
“Yeah, but the Tigers offense is on fire, we are going to score 100 runs a game”
No your not. Post season baseball is another animal, and rarely do teams score 5 or 6 runs a game.
Russell Martin vs. Avila? Push
“How dare you call that a push???”
Face it, the difference in this series is speed. The Yankees stole 148 bases, the Tigers just 49. If the Yanks get on base, they are going to steal, and Alex has not been great at throwing people out at key times. Don’t let his 32% fool you, teams are stealing on Avila at a 88% success rate from the eight inning on. In a close game, the Yanks will steal, and I don’t have faith that Alex will get them out.
As for the rest of the key positions…
Cano vs. Rayburn? ADV Yanks
Mr. November Jeter vs. Peralta? ADV Yanks
Granderson vs. Jackson? ADV Yanks
Arod vs. Inge/Bettemit? ADV Yanks
The only spot on the field I see a massive advantage is Miggy and Victor. However, I don’t believe those two make up the disadvantages in other areas.
For the Tigers to win, they need Fister to stay hot and Max to turn back to the pitcher he was. CC is going in game 4, which almost guarantees a loss for the Tigers if they throw out Porcello. That means to win, I believe Verlander has to go 2-0. That will not happen.
So Detroit, Congratulations on making the post season. It is quite the accomplishment, but don’t get your hopes up Tiger’s fans. The ride stops here.
